The next stop for Netanyahu is Tehran, following Damascus.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard admitting a severe loss in Syria means what? What will it do to compensate?
Abdel Bari Atwan
The “fundamentalist” opposition forces, supported by the US and Turkey, have taken power, and attention is now turning not only to how to reorganise the Syrian house from within but also to the future plans of Iran and Russia, the two countries most strategically and regionally affected by this sudden and shocking change for them and many others in the region.
Thus, if Russia has reached an agreement with the new regime to maintain its airbase in Hmeimim and naval base in Tartus, the Iranian political and military presence in Syria has ended, and the chances of conflict on Syrian territory are high and growing faster than many expect, including us.
The Iranian leadership has concluded that its “appeasement” policy towards the new regime in Damascus has failed because the new regime’s strongest card is complete disengagement from Tehran and joining the anti-Tehran camp, whether American-European or Arab regional, especially most Gulf countries.
Four distinct political developments in Iran suggest a new policy:
The first: An unambiguous Iranian acknowledgement of the loss in Syria owing to the demise of the Assad regime and the abandoning of “denial.”
General Behrouz Atiani, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard leader, spoke in a Tehran mosque yesterday, Tuesday, acknowledging this rare recognition. The main points were:
He said “We, as Iranians, have suffered a major loss in Syria on all fronts.”
B – He claimed that corruption in the Syrian regime, which caused the internal economic collapse, brought down the Assad regime.
C—The Syrian people, not merely opposition forces, rose up to overthrow a corrupt regime in Damascus.
The second: The escalation of secret movements in the closed dark rooms of the West, especially in Washington and London, and coordination with some Arab capitals to spark a new wave of popular protests in Tehran and other Iranian cities to repeat the Syrian scenario, overthrow the Islamic regime, and install a Western-Israeli regime.
This explains the Shah’s son’s elevation and his frequent appearance on Western and Israeli media.
Third, Turkey’s “Sunni” role, Iran’s “latent” antagonist, in controlling Damascus through Syrian friends, resurrecting the Umayyad legacy, and using armed political Islam to accomplish this old and fresh Turkish “sectarian” objective. Fourth: Deepening the living crisis in Iran by the West, focussing on the deepening economic catastrophe to exhaust the Iranian people, intensify their suffering, and amplify their fury, like in Iraq, Syria, and to a lesser extent Egypt. The blockade, high cost of living, poor public services, power outages, record rial depreciation versus the dollar, and over 30% inflation are hurting the Iranian people. How long can Iranians suffer these deteriorating conditions, asks the Western press, which is participating in the effort to weaken Iran from within?
Due to the Syrian loss and Hezbollah’s besiegement and weakening in Lebanon and the area, Iran’s influence and prestige in the region are swiftly diminishing.
Israel, the U.S., and Turkey immediately used the genocide war and ceasefire deal to destroy the Syrian regime and cut off all Iranian military and financial aid to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
This degradation of Iranian and Hezbollah prestige is best shown by the humiliating inspection of Iranian diplomats and visitors at Beirut Airport a week ago.
This does not mean that Israel, America, and their future president, Donald Trump, have softened their views of Iran, which they want to destroy and nuke. A regional power with sophisticated human and military capabilities at all levels, Iran persists.
General Atabati’s acknowledgement of the loss in Syria and maybe Lebanon could be the start of a wake-up call, a correction of the course and faults that led to these regional and international losses, and this space is shrinking for its narration. The Islamic Iranian leadership may quickly rebuild its presence in Syria by “undermining” the new Syrian regime from within to bring about a loyal or non-hostile regime. Appeasing the new regime is futile. Since it has a wealth of expertise in armed resistance, it might activate the internal opposition and develop new resistance arms like Yemen, Iraq, Gaza, and Lebanon.
Three factors may support this hypothesis: First: Mr. Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the country’s ultimate authority, spoke “about an imminent change in Syria” and said the honourable Syrian young will act quickly to end the catastrophe.
The second: Mr. Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee, warned the new Syrian regime that 130,000 “Syrian Resistance,” trained by martyr Qassem Soleimani, were “ready.”
The third: The growing “coldness” between Iran and Turkey and the Arab and Gulf countries, which provided financial, military, and media backing to the new Syrian regime. This coldness may lead to confrontations, as yesterday’s Iran, with its lengthy breath, is not today’s Iran nearing the Israeli dagger at its throat.
Since his government claims it has cut or weakened most of the Iranian “octopus” arms in Lebanon, Iraq, and Gaza and the only remaining arm is the “Ansar Allah” arm in Yemen, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been planning to invade Iran and destroy its nuclear facilities for decades, may find an opportunity to do so in about ten days when his strategic ally Donald Trump returns to the White House. According to close colleagues, Netanyahu may strike the “octopus” head in Tehran next. He boasts that “Assad is playing with fire and will pay a heavy price,” hinting at his downfall, has come true in Syria, and predicts that “Iran will soon be free.”
We conclude that Iran is neither Syria nor Libya and will not quickly accept the Axis of Resistance’s defeat. Iran is almost 10,000 years old, riddled with wars and empires, while Israel is 76 and America is less than 400. It survived a 40-year siege and defeated all internal and external American machinations.
Most of its military manufacturers are world-class, especially in hypersonic missiles, drones, submarines, and possibly nuclear bombs.
In his recent remarks, Sayyid al-Shuhada Hassan Nasrallah declared life is for you and against you. If losing Syria was a day for America, Turkey, and Israel, Iran and the Axis of Resistance may follow.